Price trend

In the first half of May, the market for BR was weak and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of May 15th, the domestic price of BR was 11,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.46% from 11,380 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene decreased, and the cost of BR declined; During the cycle, the factory price of BR was adjusted twice (first increased and then decreased), and merchants' offers slightly decreased. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of May 15th, the factory price of BR at Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11,000 RMB/ton. As of May 15th, the mainstream quotations for BR in the East China market of Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan, Qixiang, Zhenhua, etc. were 10,800-11,300 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

In the first half of May, the supply of BR slightly increased, and there were still plans to restart devices in the later stage, making it difficult to alleviate the pressure on the supply of BR in the short term. Yantai Haopu's 60,000 ton/year loading was put into operation and restarted on May 12th; The load of Maoming Petrochemical Plant had been reduced to 60%; The 72,000 ton/year plant of TSRC had restarted operation.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material butadiene declined weakly, and the cost of BR declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of May 15th, the price of butadiene was 8,281 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.44% from 8,851 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market slightly increased in the first half of May, providing slight support for BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of May 15th, the price of natural rubber was 11,880 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.39% from 11,490 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

The tire operating rate slightly decreased in the first half of May, which had a rigid demand support for rubber but was weaker compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of mid May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 63%; the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises was 70%.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that some BR units have recently restarted and there are also expectations of restarting some units in the future, resulting in increased pressure on the supply side of BR; Downstream construction has slightly decreased, resulting in poor procurement of BR. Although natural rubber prices have slightly increased, natural rubber inventory is still accumulating, and short-term support for BR is not optimistic. Overall, it is expected that BR will experience weak consolidation in the short term.

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