The latest price of natural rubber (all latex) (May 15th): 11880 RMB/ton, fluctuating in the future market
Key points of analysis: Recent speculation about rubber storage has driven the natural rubber market upwards, with Shanghai Rubber once again passing 12000 points. On May 15th, the 09 contract was around 12300 RMB/ton; According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the mainstream domestic latex quotation in the East China market increased by 1.87% per day to around 11880 RMB/ton. It is understood that the current news of rubber storage has not been confirmed, and the market expects a low possibility of storage. In terms of supply, currently Vietnam has good phenology and normal rubber cutting, while the northeast of Thailand is cutting, but the total output of new rubber is not much at the beginning; In addition, the market expects a very high possibility of an El Ni ñ o phenomenon this year, which will cause global high temperatures and have an impact on global production areas. However, currently, China's ports continue to accumulate rubber imports, with Qingdao Port's inventory of 881200 tons exceeding the 2020 peak of 856900 tons. The pressure on rubber supply continues to increase. Downstream, demand continues to lack core positive support. According to data from China Automobile Association, automobile production and sales in April decreased by 17.5% and 11.9% month on month, respectively; Last week, the operating rate of all steel tires in tire companies was around 70%, and finished products accumulated at a high speed. The operating rate of half steel tires is currently around 60%, and inventory accumulation is relatively slow.
Future Market Forecast: There is no definite news yet on whether the collection and storage have come true. The Shanghai rubber level of 12000 has been reached, and with the rise of spot rubber in the market, the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that there will be strong fluctuations in the short term. However, in the medium term, there is a lack of supply and demand, weak support, and no real trend in the rise of natural rubber.
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