Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal on May 1st was 3m148 RMB/ton, and on May 30th, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 3m275 RMB/ton, with an increase of 4.02% during the period.

Analysis review

The domestic rapeseed meal market mainly increased in May. Starting from May, domestic new rapeseed gradually went on the market, and supply of imported rapeseed was sufficient. According to data statistics, from January to April 2023, domestic imported rapeseed reached 2.26 million tons, an increase of nearly 400% year-on-year. In April, domestic imported rapeseed reached 603,100 tons, an increase of 0.70% month on month. The operating rate of oil plants remained high, and the supply of rapeseed meal was loose. The weather was warming up, aquaculture was entering the peak season, feed companies were actively stocking, and the demand for rapeseed meal was gradually increasing; The price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal was relatively high, and the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal was advantageous, supporting the rise in rapeseed meal prices. Starting from the middle of the month, the quantity of imported soybeans had increased, soybean meal inventory was at a high level, and the prices declined, which had hindered the rise of rapeseed meal and led to a decrease in rapeseed meal prices.

In terms of soybean meal: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal on May 1st was 4,324 RMB/ton, and on May 30th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,840 RMB/ton, with a decline of 11.19% during the period. Since mid May, soybean meal prices had shown a weak decline trend.

Market outlook

The quantity of imported rapeseed increased significantly year-on-year from January to April, and the supply of rapeseed meal was sufficient; The weather was warming up, aquaculture was in peak season, and demand for rapeseed meal was promising; Starting from mid May, soybean meal prices had been weakened and lowered, suppressing the domestic market for rapeseed meal. It is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuated and adjusted.

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