The LLDPE Commodity Index on January 17 was 70.39, which was the same as yesterday, a decrease of 40.12% from the highest point of the cycle at 117.56 (2013-December-11) and an increase of 0.69% from the lowest point of September 08, 2019 at 69.91. (Note: Period refers to 2011-Septmber-01 to present)

On January 17, the LDPE commodity index was 62.74, an increase of 0.19 points from yesterday, and a decrease of 44.64% from the highest point of the cycle at 113.33 (2013-December-08), which was an increase of 0.63% from the minimum of 62.35 on January 12, 2020 (Note: Period refers to 2011-Septmber-01 to present)

On January 17, the HDPE commodity index was 63.36, which was the same as yesterday and hit a historical low in the cycle, which was a 38.08% drop from the peak of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-Septmber-01 to present)

This week (January 13-17) the ex-factory price of polyethylene is sideways. The average price of LDPE 2426H monitored by the business agency in East China was about 8,062.5 RMB / ton. The average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7,816.67 RMB / ton. And the average price of LLDPE 7042 is around 7,350 RMB / ton.

Up to January 17, the prices of LLDPE and HDPE in East China showed a steady trend this week. And the prices of LDPE showed a steady upward trend this week. Although the ex-factory price of petrochemicals did not change significantly, the overall market price of PE has fluctuated, most increasing by 50-200 RMB / ton.

At the beginning of the week, the linear futures fluctuated, boosting the market mentality and the prices of merchants' offers partially moved up. However, the futures continued to fall on Tuesday, to a certain extent, suppressing the downstream enthusiasm for entering the market. Coupled with the weak trend of international crude oil, merchants gave up some profit to sell products. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching and downstream factories gradually go on holiday. Terminal demand is weak, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market weakened.

Imports and exports aspect, the total PE imports in November 2019 were 1,456,300 tons. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE was 451,900 tons, the import volume of HDPE was 708,600 tons, and the import volume of LDPE was 295,800 tons.

The total PE export in November 2019 was 25,900 tons. Among them, the export volume of LDPE was 73,300 tons, the export volume of HDPE was 15,300 tons, and the export volume of LLDPE was 33,300 tons.

Summary

At present, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Downstream factories have gradually entered into a holiday state. Demand will gradually decrease. Merchant shipments will be blocked, and the market atmosphere continues to wait and see.

Petrochemical inventories have fallen to low levels, and supply-side pressure has eased.

It is expected that the market continue to be weak in the short term, mainly sideways.

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