Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 1st to 8th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 6,612 RMB/ton to 6,317 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 4.45% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 26.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 47.53%. The external market remained weak, downstream inquiries were cautious, high-end offers and transactions were poor, and the domestic butadiene market price performance was weak and volatile.

Analysis review

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, international crude oil prices rebounded and fluctuated. Affected by the favorable supply of Saudi Arabia's plan to deepen production cuts, the bullish sentiment in the market had diluted the bearish sentiment of rising US refined oil inventories and weak Chinese data. On June 8th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil of SunSirs was 71.74 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 3.28% compared to the beginning of this month (69.46 US dollars per barrel).

In terms of Naphtha, the terminal of Naphtha just in needed and was firm, the demand for ethylene was released in a centralized way, the market transaction was smooth, and the refinery actively promoted the increase. The market price of Naphtha had risen in a narrow range. On June 8, the benchmark price of Naphtha in SunSirs was 7,889.00 RMB/ton, up 3.48% compared with 7,624.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month. The cost of butadiene was relatively favorable and had a positive impact.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company maintained a butadiene price of 6,400 RMB/ton. The restart of Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shenhua Ningxia coal plants, coupled with the continuous arrival of imported cargo at ports, had put pressure on the market supply side. In the short term, the supply side of butadiene had a negative impact.

On the demand side, dragged by cost and demand side bearish factors, the downstream synthetic rubber market was weak and declining, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, mainly purchased as needed. The synchronous downtrend of upstream and downstream products affected the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult to find demand support in the butadiene market. The demand for butadiene was weak.

On June 7th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at 685-695 US dollars per ton; China CFR was quoted at 735-745 US dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 495-505 US dollars per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 645-655 euros/ton.

Market outlook

The supply side news of planned and unplanned parking of some devices had boosted the market to some extent, but the external market was abundant in supply, downstream industries were not performing well, demand side support was limited, and the market lacked sustained positive support. Butadiene analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak and volatile.

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