Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices rose first and then fell this week. As of June 9th, the spot nickel quotation was 167,616.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.37% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 24.71%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, nickel prices had risen for 6 weeks and fallen for 6 weeks in the past 12 weeks. Recently, nickel prices had rebounded slightly.

Analysis review

On the macro level, on Tuesday, the World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2023 to 2.1%, while also raising China's economic growth forecast for 2023 to 5.6% and the United States' economic growth forecast for 1.1%, which had played a certain role in boosting market sentiment. The market was more inclined towards the Federal Reserve's suspension of expectations in June, with global stock markets rising and risk appetite increasing. The trend of non-ferrous metals had generally rebounded, but the rebound space was limited. However, the unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Canada had helped the Federal Reserve maintain its hawkish stance, increasing expectations for rate hikes, and there were many macroeconomic uncertainties.

In terms of supply: In May, the national refined nickel production totaled 18,600 tons, an increase of 5.67% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 30.28%; The expected production in June is 19,500 tons. In addition, the inflow of Russian nickel long-term orders and customs clearance conditions were not limited by whether imports were profitable, supplementing domestic supply.

In terms of demand: The overall demand for pure nickel was stable, with differentiated performance in the terminal field. The production schedule for stainless steel in June remained basically unchanged, while spot transactions were flat. In terms of new energy, the import volume of MHP and high nickel matte declined, and the tight expectation of raw materials stabilized the price of Nickel(II) sulfate. Alloy and electroplating companies maintain an attitude of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices.

Market outlook

In summary, due to the macroeconomic boost at the beginning of the week, nickel prices rose, but the demand for incremental production from downstream steel mills was weak. Pure nickel production was released and Russian nickel was gradually delivered, putting pressure on supply and causing nickel prices to fell back after rising. However, the absolute inventory level was still low, which provided some support for nickel prices. Under the fundamentals of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that nickel will maintain a broad fluctuation trend.

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