According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since June, the soybean oil market has rebounded and steadily increased, with an overall increase of over 6%. At the beginning of the month, the average price of soybean oil market was 7,200 RMB/ton. On June 14th, the average price of soybean oil market was 7,652 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 6.28%.

The main factors affecting the rise and fall of soybean oil market in this round are as follows:

Supply side: According to customs data, soybean imports in May reached 12.02 million tons, an increase of 65.4% month on month; From January to May 2023, soybean imports reached 42.306 million tons, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year. In April and May, the import quantity of raw soybean significantly increased, and the supply side was loose, which to some extent limited the upward space of soybean oil market.

Inventory: After May, soybean oil inventory continued to increase and remained at a high level, approaching 800,000 tons, until June. As of the week ending June 9th, major domestic oil factories had 770,000 tons of soybean oil inventories, an increase of 4% on a weekly basis and 19% on a monthly basis. The inventory pressure has doubled, and the soybean oil market lacks momentum for sustained growth.

Market: Starting from June, the weather theme of the external market has reappeared, supported by bullish factors, and the soybean oil futures market has risen, while spot prices have risen with the market, with continuous upward trend. On June 1st, the main revenue of soybean oil was 6,926 RMB/ton, while on the 13th, the main revenue of soybean oil was 7,224 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.3%. The spot price of soybean oil fluctuated for over half a month, with an increase of over 6%. The market average price exceeded 7,600 RMB/ton. The boost in futures prices is the main reason for the rise of soybean oil this round.

Demand: As temperatures continue to rise, consumer demand in the terminal catering industry has weakened, and the stocking enthusiasm of terminal catering enterprises has decreased. As a result, on-demand procurement has slowed down the market, putting pressure on the rise of soybean oil.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that there is a large amount of imported soybeans, poor terminal demand, and multiple bearish factors are still present. The rise in soybean oil may be difficult to sustain, and the weak decline will continue to be the main trend in the future.

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