1. Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market price of silicon-manganese alloys this week is relatively stable and has not fluctuated significantly, but it is also affected by the pressure of funds at the end of the year. In addition to the uncertainty of the later market, the quotations of some companies are now slightly loose, with a small range, around 50yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of manganese-silicon, with a specification of FeMN68Si18, is about 6100-6200 yuan / ton in Ningxia.

2.  Analysis of influencing factors

So far, the major silicon steel manganese alloy tenders in January have ended, as shown in the following figure:

The overall start of silicon-manganese alloy enterprises has declined

It is understood that costs such as electricity prices are not dominant, and factories in the southern region have successively sent out information on production suspension and reduction.

Among them, the electricity price in Guangxi has been set at 0.54 yuan / kWh. Most factories have stated that production will be suspended after the raw materials are used up. By then, there will be large-scale production shutdowns and reductions in the region.

Currently, due to insufficient wind power and coal resources, the Ulanqab area of ​​Inner Mongolia has recently increased its power consumption compared to the previous period.

However, Ningxia was affected by environmental protection. According to relevant personnel, as of January 12, there were 41 production-restricted enterprises in Yinchuan, 4 suspended production enterprises, and 19 enterprises with a production limit of 50% or more. Shizuishan City has 193 production-limiting enterprises and 25 production-stopping enterprises. The production of ferroalloys and activated carbon has been limited by more than 50%.

Rhenium ore market is relatively stable

In terms of raw manganese ore, on the one hand, the quotation in the outer disk has risen steadily and moderately, coupled with the need for the factory to stock up after the year, the market is now optimistic. On the other hand, the atmosphere for the rest of the market is getting stronger and stronger, and the overall inquiry and procurement atmosphere is not good.

Qinzhou port ore prices are stable, and some ore prices and transaction prices in Tianjin port have weakened slightly. Up to now, the foreign manganese mines' spot forward bids for February have been issued, and they have risen as a whole, and the adjustments of the mines have varied, but the forward spot arrival costs have all risen, indicating that the manganese ore spot rise in February and March is supported. As a result, the cost of raw materials for silicon-manganese manufacturers has increased correspondingly. It is expected that there is still room for control of the silicon-manganese market after the Spring Festival.

3.  Forecast

As the year nears the end of the year, the manganese-silicon market has been lightly traded this week, and steel mill procurement has basically ended. At present, transportation difficulties are increasing, costs are increasing, and vehicles are difficult to find. Supply in the southern market continues to be tight. Small and medium-sized plants have basically stopped production. Many manufacturers indicate that the resumption time is still to be determined. It is necessary to wait and see the new round of national electricity prices, and the northern Ningxia environmental protection production limit incident has limited impact on the market. SunSirs expects that short-term silicon-manganese will continue to run steadily.

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