Recently, the prices of various products in the plastic industry market have mostly seen low and narrow range consolidation, with three types of plastic futures showing mixed ups and downs. Since the beginning of June until now, the overall profit of the plastic industry has been significant. On the macro level, the increase of the US Debt limit aggravated global inflation, and economic recession fears spread. Affected by this, the international crude oil, which is a plastic remote raw material, has seen a decline and a decrease. At the same time, the load rate of the downstream plastic industry is not ideal, consumption follow-up is lagging, and market momentum is poor. Within half a month, the plastic futures market continued to be in a pattern of off-season consumption and weakened costs, with prices showing a narrow range of consolidation.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 14th, the average half month increase in spot prices of various products is from high to low, followed by PP (wire drawing)+0.81%, LLDPE+0.18%, and PVC-0.18%.
At the beginning of June, the domestic polypropylene market continued its previous negative trend, with a narrow increase from a low level for half a month, but the price has not yet broken away from the three-year low level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of PP wire drawing material on June 14th increased by 0.81% compared to the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PP industry in the near future is about 78%, and the estimated half month total production is about 1.2 million tons or more. There is sufficient supply of goods on the site, and inventory has leveled off compared to the previous period. At the same time, the deployment of new production capacity and the expected resumption of maintenance equipment have both increased, and the supply side has poor support for the price market. The main terminal enterprises of PP, plastic weaving and BOPP, have a monthly operating rate of around 40% and 61%, and the overall stability has been stable for half a month. On site consumption remained weak and trading was weak. The main upstream propylene is weakly shaken by the pressure of raw materials, weakening its support for PP. Futures have also been weak and volatile for half a month, with PP2307 closing at 7011 on the 14th at a settlement price of 7042, which has not had a good effect on boosting spot prices. The current shortage of polypropylene consumption coexists with the expected increase in supply, and it is expected that the PP market may continue to operate in a weak consolidation mode.
Recently, the spot prices of plastic futures and three materials have also stabilized at a low level. On the macro level, the external economic environment has performed poorly, and the deepening of global inflation is still exacerbating the decline of crude oil and other bulk commodity raw materials. There is a direct negative impact on plasticizing enterprises, as the long-term low factory prices of products increase business risks, and operators have weak confidence in the future market. At present, the construction of aggregation enterprises is relatively stable, and the supply side is stable. But automobiles, agricultural films, and household appliances have entered the traditional off-season, and PP and PE consumption is sluggish. PVC has also been affected by the contraction of the building materials market and its demand has been downgraded. The overall demand for the three materials tends to follow up and maintain production, with market supply exceeding demand. In summary, the three materials of plastic futures are currently affected by many bearish factors such as weak costs and supply-demand conflicts. However, due to the significant drop in prices in the early stages and the digestion of some short positions, the market entered a narrow consolidation market in the first half of June. It is expected that in the short term, the three materials of plastic futures may continue this weak consolidation pattern.
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