Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices slightly increased this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 69,670 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.77% from the 69,140 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 8.31%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, it has been down for 6 weeks and up for 6 weeks. Recently, copper prices have continued to rise.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, the US suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled in June, and although hawkish signals were released that there may be two more rate hikes, the market seems not very satisfied with this. The probability of next month's rate hike is not yet firmly established, and domestic economic stabilization policies have also arrived as expected, providing protection for the recovery. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment has rebounded.

Supply side: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China refined 1.095 million tons of copper (electrolytic copper) in May, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. The copper inventory of the registered warehouse of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined. Since February 24, the copper inventory of the Exchange has dropped 76% to 61,090 tons, continuing to provide bottom support for copper prices.

On the demand side: The demand side is weak and difficult to improve in the short term, and the number of new orders added at the terminal was relatively small, leading to a decline in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. It is difficult to find bright spots in the actual consumption side. Although the country was taking measures to launch high-quality development policies for the new energy vehicle industry, it still takes some time to transmit them to reality.

Market outlook

In summary, macro recovery, low inventory support, and copper prices had some support. However, demand was still weak, and copper prices had rebounded to a certain level from the bottom. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels.

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