In January, the price of palm oil staged a roller coaster market. After the big rise, it ushered in a big fall. The overall market fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of palm oil market was 6562 RMB / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of palm oil market was 6480 RMB / ton, down 1.25% overall.
Market Analysis
Palm oil market in January can be roughly divided into three stages. In the first stage, palm oil rose strongly from the 1st to the 13th, with the price rising to 6804 RMB / ton and the price rising by 3.69%.
The second stage is from the 13th to the 17th. The price dived from the high platform, and the price dropped to 6480 RMB / ton, down 4.76%.
The third stage is from19th to 30th. During the Spring Festival, palm oil prices were flat.
The first stage (1st to 13th): Strong Rise
After New Year’s Day, palm oil production in Malaysia, the main producer, is expected to decrease significantly. And palm oil is still in the rising channel supported by the rigid demand for terminal oil.
On January 10, the MPOB report was released. In December, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by more than 13% month on month, and the positive factors came back.
On January 13, the palm oil futures market was even boosted, and the spot price of palm oil rose, with the mainstream price of 6750-6800 RMB / ton, up nearly 2% per day.
The second stage (13th to 17th): Palm Oil Diving
On the 13th, prices rose sharply, supported by the positive output of Malaysia sharply reduced by the MPOB report. However, this situation is quite unstable. After a while, there is a significant increase of edible oil import data, and the end stock market is almost over. On the 14th, there was a big dive. As of the 17th, palm oil had dropped to 6480 RMB / ton, which is far more than the rise.
The third stage (17th to 30th): On the Eve of the Spring Festival, the Palm Oil Market was Stable.
From the 24th to the 30th, during the Spring Festival, there was no quotation for palm oil market.
Market Forecasting
Li Bing, an agricultural products analyst at SunSirs, believes that although February is the off-season of oil consumption. The output of palm oil in the outer market is mainly reduced. And there is still room for the price of palm oil to rise. It is expected that palm oil will return to its high level in February.
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