1  Price Trend

In 2020, the price adjustment of domestic LPG market (Shandong) is too fast, and the overall trend is to increase first and then suppress. It can be seen from the figure that, near the Spring Festival, most of the manufacturers were mainly in the decline of inventory before the festival. On January 7, the average price of domestic LPG market was 4,883.33RMB/ ton, on January 22, the average price was 4,383.33 RMB/ ton, only half a month, the price drop was 10.24%, and the price was 8.23% higher than the same period last year.

At the beginning of January, the stabbing behavior of the United States to the Iranian executives intensified the tension in the Middle East, which led to the rise of oil prices. In addition, the introduction of January CP price explosion of Saudi Aramco supported the rise of domestic gas prices. At this time, the inventory of LPG manufacturers was under control as a whole. Petrochemical manufacturers had continuously raised their prices, while other manufacturers had kept pace with the increase. The civil market had increased by 6.55% in seven days. However, the good times were not long. With the continuous rise of LPG price, limited terminal receiving capacity, and increasing resistance, more delisting consumed the early inventory, and the wait-and-see mood was the main stream. The market transaction atmosphere became weak. In addition, the trend of international crude oil was volatile, the price of international external market was weak, the support for LPG market was limited, and the shipment of manufacturers was continuously blocked. But the Spring Festival was coming gradually, and the manufacturers needed to store and arrange before the festival. In order to stimulate the downstream market, they had to continuously yield profits and mainly ship goods. After the price fell to a relatively low level, the enthusiasm of the downstream market increased, and the market transaction atmosphere improved. At present, the manufacturers have basically completed the pre-Festival stock arrangement operation, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The decline of LPG market slowed down.

Saudi Aramco's January CP reported a sharp rise in both propylene and butane. Propane rose to $565 /ton, up $125 /ton from last month, and butane to $590 /ton, up $135 /ton from last month.

2  Market Forecast

According to the trend of previous years, there will be a wave of rising market after the Spring festival. With the demand of manufacturers for stock arrangement before the festival, the price of LPG fell to a relatively low level, and there was a certain gap in the market demand after the festival. The downstream replenishment is expected to increase, the enthusiasm for entering the market will be improved, the mentality of manufacturers will be strong, and the price may be pushed up. In the long run, pay more attention to February CP and international trend.

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