Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 26, the price of bulk dichloromethane in Shandong was 2,400 RMB/ton, up 2.78% from 2,335 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, up 5.49% from the low point of 2,275 RMB/ton in the cycle, and down 15.64% from the high point of 2,745 RMB/ton in the cycle.

Analysis review

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 30-day price line of dichloromethane in the first quarter was basically below the 7-day price line, and the overall dichloromethane market in the first quarter was in an upward phase; The 30-day price line of dichloromethane price in the second quarter was basically above the 7-day price line, and the overall dichloromethane market in the second quarter was in a downward phase. The high point of the six-month market was 2,845 RMB/ton on March 13th.

In the first half of the year, the operating rate of methane chloride fluctuated between 60% and 80%. On the whole, the operating rate gradually increased from the beginning of the year, and the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane gradually increased. The price of raw methanol fell sharply in the first half of the year, and the cost center of dichloromethane moved down. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 26, the domestic methanol market price was 2,074 RMB/ton, down 23.13% from 2,698 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year.

After the festival, the downstream polyurethane foaming agent, adhesive, cleaning agent and other industries started to increase gradually, and the refrigerant peak season came later. In addition, some enterprises received export orders smoothly, and the price of dichloromethane rose in the first quarter; Since the middle of March, on the one hand, the operating rate of methane chloride continued to increase, and the inventory of enterprises increased. On the other hand, the downstream opening rate had not increased significantly, and the new demand was light. In addition, the refrigerant industry peak season had gradually ended, and the supply and demand of dichloromethane was weaker.

Market outlook

According to the methane chloride data analysts of SunSirs, at present, the price of raw methanol is at a low level, and the cost support of dichloromethane is insufficient. However, with the decline of the price of dichloromethane, the profits of enterprises are constantly squeezed. As the price approaches the cost line, there may be devices that will be shut down for maintenance; In the medium and long term, the production capacity of dichloromethane continues to be loose, the demand side grows slowly, and the price of dichloromethane will fluctuate between 2,000 RMB and 3,500 RMB/ton. In the second half of the year, the dichloromethane market may be low at the beginning and high at the end.

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