Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on June 28, 2023 was 18,586.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.94% compared to the aluminum price of 18,413.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17,500 to 19,500 RMB/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Cost side: The center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum smelting costs continued to move downwards. The decline in prices of pre baked anodes, alumina, and coal had weakened the cost support for aluminum prices.

On the demand side: The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises had slightly declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will be difficult to improve as the industry's off-season approaches.

Inventory data: Since June, the social aluminum ingot inventory and factory warehouse had been in a state of destocking. The production data showed that the weekly production was relatively stable.

Market outlook

In the short term, aluminum prices will maintain the broad volatility pattern.

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