According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall operation of thermal coal continues to be weak and stable. On June 27th, the energy index stood at 891 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 42.92% from the cycle's highest point of 1561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 74.36% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, while state-owned large mines actively guarantee supply, and supply is basically maintained in a relatively loose state. Traders tend to have a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the procurement pace has slowed down.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices are generally weak and trading volume is average. As the weather heats up and peak summer approaches, daily power plant consumption accelerates, inventory drops, and demand increases. However, with the replenishment of long-term coal and imported coal, the overall inventory is still high, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the trend of national coal prices gradually stabilized in mid June, and some coal types began to rebound slightly. The specific price changes of various coals are as follows: the price of Anthracite (washing block, volatile matter≤8%) is 1,102.5 RMB/ton, down 138.9 RMB/ton from the previous period, or 11.2%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 599.8 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.5 RMB/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 689.8 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.9 RMB/ton or 0.3% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 789.7 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.1 RMB/ton or 0.5% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mines maintain normal production in terms of production areas, and the coal mines mainly focus on ensuring the supply of long-term cooperative coal. In terms of downstream ports, due to the recent hot weather, there has been an increase in demand for power plants during peak summer. However, with the increase of guaranteed coal supply and imported coal, downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will be mainly consolidated and operated in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

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