According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic asphalt market fluctuated and sorted out in June. From June 1st to 28th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province dropped from 3,774 RMB/ton to 3,769 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The maximum amplitude for the month was 0.92%, and the price decreased by 18.52% year-on-year.
At the beginning of the month, international crude oil was operating weakly, coupled with rainfall in various regions, resulting in slightly flat demand and limited support for spot asphalt prices. There are differences in the situation of local refining, and the prices are mixed. In the first half of this month, international crude oil was relatively strong, but downstream demand remained sluggish in recovery. The transmission of cost benefits is not smooth, and the upward momentum of the asphalt market is insufficient. The ups and downs in different regions are slightly different, and the overall fluctuation is not significant. In the latter half of the month, international crude oil remained mainly volatile, with varying regional demand performance. Asphalt in the northern region requires some support, and shipments are relatively smooth, with prices slightly increasing.
On the cost side, the crude oil market price range fluctuated in June. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.37 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.35 per barrel. On the one hand, from the perspective of the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate hikes has not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure is increasing, and the oil market is under pressure. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China's refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.
On the supply side, the main production enterprises include Xinjiang Meihuite, Dalian Jinyuan, Jincheng Petrochemical, and HSBC Petrochemical to resume asphalt production. Drive an increase in construction within the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The demand in the northern region is still acceptable, while the rainfall in many southern regions and the rainy season in eastern China are important factors limiting market demand. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.
As of the close of June 28th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2310 opened at 3,562 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,580 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,532 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,562 RMB/ton, a decrease of 27% or 0.75% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 257,373 lots, a holding volume of 244,084 lots, and a daily increase of 9,782 lots.
In the future market forecast, supply continues to rebound and the market atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is weak and actual demand is weak. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.
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