According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal has stabilized and operated this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of thermal coal stabilized, and in the middle of the month, the price of thermal coal decreased, while in the middle and late stages, the price increased. On June 29th, the energy index stood at 892 points, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.86% from the cycle's highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 74.56% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)
In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the coal supply side is relatively stable. Currently, state-owned large mines are actively ensuring supply, and the supply is basically maintained in a relatively loose state. Traders tend to have a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the procurement pace has slowed down. The prices of coal mines with good sales in their production areas have started to rise, boosting the market.
In terms of downstream ports, port prices have maintained a stable operating trend this month. In the middle of the month, due to the warmer weather, there has been an increase in demand from factories during peak summer. However, non electricity demand has not shown signs of improvement in the near future, and procurement is still mainly based on demand. And as the quotation rises, there may be resistance in downstream deliveries, resulting in a decrease in the price of thermal coal. At the end of the month, as the temperature rises, port inventory decreases, and with the arrival of peak summer, demand increases. The price of coal has increased.
On the 28th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to May 2023, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a revenue of 51.39 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The operating revenue of the mining industry was 2,529.22 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the operating revenue of Coal mining and washing industry was 1,509.68 billion RMB, down 9.1% year on year. From January to May 2023, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 266.89 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%. The mining industry achieved a total profit of 591.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%. Among them, Coal mining and washing industry realized a total profit of 365.8 billion RMB, down 18.7% year on year.
SunSirs analysts believe that the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production and the coal supply side is relatively stable. In terms of downstream ports, as the weather and temperature rise, the inventory of power plants decreases, and there is still demand for coal. Overall, it is expected that there may still be room for upward movement in the later stage of thermal coal prices. However, downstream acceptance is limited, and there may not be much room for upward movement, depending on downstream market demand.
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