According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall domestic and international prices of three yuan live pigs fluctuated and declined in June, with an average price of 14.27 RMB/kg on June 1st and 13.77 RMB/kg on June 30th, a decrease of 3.50% during the month.
Entering June, the demand in the terminal meat market remains sluggish, and the continued weakness of pig prices has led to losses in the breeding industry. Farmers are still reluctant to sell at high prices, and coupled with the gradual increase in domestic temperatures and a decrease in pig sales, the supply and demand game in the domestic pig market continues to intensify. At the beginning of the month, the price of the domestic pig market fluctuated, and the overall low price of pig prices fluctuated slightly.
In late June, the sale of live pigs before the Dragon Boat Festival increased slightly on a year-on-year basis. The demand of the terminal meat market continued to be weak. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, the domestic pig market price fell again. Summer was the off-season of traditional meat demand, and the pig price fell again, inducing farmers to sell. After finishing the acquisition task, the slaughterhouse continuously lowered the purchase price of live pigs. The overall low price of the domestic pig market continued to bear pressure.
The latest data shows that by the end of May, the national stock of sows capable of breeding was 42.58 million, which is 103.9% of the normal stock of 41 million. In May, the national stock of sows capable of breeding decreased by 0.6% month on month and increased by 6% year-on-year. The overall stock of live pigs is stable, and the overall supply in the domestic pig market will be relatively sufficient in the future.
According to customs data, China's pork import volume from January to May 2023 was 810,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%.
In June, domestic corn prices continued to rise, rising by 2.44% within the month. Soybean meal prices rebounded slightly, rising by 4.72% within the month. Pig prices continued to be weak, and the cost of breeding and feeding continued to rise. The loss area of the domestic pig breeding industry expanded again, and the overall pig to grain ratio in China dropped to around 5:1. The enthusiasm of farmers to supplement their livestock continued to decline, and the domestic pig stock will continue to decline.
SunSirs pig product analyst believes that universities, colleges, and universities will continue to have holidays in July. Coupled with the continued high temperatures, the demand for terminal meat markets will become even weaker, and the overall stock of pigs will remain stable. The domestic pig market supply will be stable, and under strong and weak market supply and demand pressure, it is expected that the domestic pig market prices will continue to be under pressure, stable and weak in July, supported by the current high domestic breeding costs, The overall space for the continued decline in pig prices in July is limited.
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