Price trend
From January to June 2023, the average price of 1# lead ingot market in East China was 15,745 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and 15,225 RMB/ton at the middle of the year, down 3.3% in half a year. The highest point in the first half of the year was 15,745 RMB/ton on January 1st, and the lowest point was 14,950 RMB/ton on June 2nd, with a maximum amplitude of 5.05%. After a broad decline at the beginning of the year, the trend was mostly volatile.
On July 3rd, the lead commodity index was 93.69 points, an increase of 1.03 points from the previous day, a decrease of 30.09% from the cycle's highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 25.54% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).
From 2019 to 2023, From the lead price trend chart it can be seen that the price trend of lead ingots had not fluctuated much, and the overall trend maintained a wide range of fluctuations. The distinction between low and peak seasons was not so obvious, and most of them followed the overall market fluctuations. The main reason for this trend is that lead is a recyclable metal, and in China, the development of recycled lead has been very rapid in the past two years. The annual production had increased from 2.2 million tons in 2018 to 5.54 million tons in 2022. Therefore, the overall supply of lead ingots in China was relatively sufficient, and the price fluctuation range was limited.
Since July 2022, the lead ingot market has maintained a narrow and volatile trend as a whole, with only an increase of 3.02% in November 2022 and a decrease of 3.84% in January 2023. Other monthly fluctuations were within 2%. Overall, the fluctuation range throughout the year was relatively small, and the overall trend remained broad and volatile.
The main fluctuation range of lead prices in the first half of 2023 was between 14,900 and 15,900 RMB/ton. At the beginning of the year, due to the comprehensive influence of downstream market factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and seasonal off-season, the market price showed a significant downward trend. In February, with the end of the holiday and the downstream off-season, lead prices returned to the fluctuation trend. Lead is a commodity with relatively low price fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector, and is less affected by its own supply and demand during the off-season, mainly following the overall market fluctuations.
Entering February, with the end of the holiday of the first lunar month, the metal market gradually resumed normal production. The operating rate steadily increased throughout February, and by the end of the month, the operating rate had basically returned to normal. The supply of lead ingots was tight first and then loose. As the weather warmed, downstream storage companies began to operate, and the demand for lead ingots remained stable and improving. During the same period, the international macro performance was poor, with the overseas banking crisis fermenting in March, and the market's risk aversion sentiment becoming increasingly strong. Due to the low inventory of lead in London and the support of the industry peak season, the lead's resilience to decline was strong, so the price remained volatile. After April, as the weather warmed up, the battery industry gradually entered a seasonal off-season, with lead ingot prices fluctuating between 14,900 and 15,400 RMB/ton. The off-season trend from April to May was obvious, and the overall performance was a weak supply and demand pattern, with an increase of 0.3% in April, a decrease of 0.69% in May, and an increase of 1.33% in June.
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