Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 29th to July 6th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 5,973 RMB/ton to 6,362 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 6.51% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 38.90%.
Analysis review
Major production enterprises such as Sinopec had raised their factory quotations, which boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies ere resistant to high prices. The transaction of some offshore cargo in South Korea and Southeast Asia was still acceptable, but the price was still lower than the domestic spot price, so it is temporarily difficult to bring a significant boost to the domestic market.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices fluctuated upwards, and WTI crude oil in the United States was closed on Tuesday. Affected by supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, prices had increased. In addition, data from the American Chamber of Petroleum (API) showed a significant decrease in US inventory last week. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in SunSirs was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel).
In terms of Naphtha, the domestic Naphtha market was weak. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in SunSirs was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel). The cost of butadiene was mixed.
On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company had raised the price of butadiene by a cumulative 500 RMB/ton, and as of July 6th, the listed price was 6,600 RMB/ton. The shutdown of Shandong Weite and Hangzhou Yibang units had a positive impact on the short-term supply of butadiene.
On the demand side, dragged by cost and demand side bearish factors, the downstream synthetic rubber market was weak and declining, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The synchronous downtrend of upstream and downstream products affected the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult to find demand support in the butadiene market. The demand for butadiene was weaker.
On July 5th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at 585-595 US dollars per ton; China CFR report 645-655 US dollars per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 365- 375 US dollars per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 555-565 euros/ton.
Market outlook
Although the supplier's prices were relatively firm, the external prices were still lower than the domestic spot prices, leading downstream merchants to be cautious about future market expectations. Butadiene analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic butadiene market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.
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