Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices slightly declined this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 68,206.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.46% from 69,920 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 17.19%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices have fallen for 6 weeks and risen for 6 weeks in the past three months. Recently, copper prices continued to rise.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, Federal Reserve officials and meeting minutes further strengthened the Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate hike in July. US bond yields surged to a new high in nearly four months, causing the US dollar to expand its gains and highlighting the pressure on global economic growth and metal demand prospects. In addition, the slowing pace of domestic economic growth had also fueled bearish sentiment in the market.

Supply side: The mining side remained abundant, with the copper concentrate import index of 91.53 US dollars/ton last week, an increase of 0.43 US dollars/ton week on week. The cumulative production from January to June was 5.5592 million tons, an increase of 553,400 tons year-on-year, or 11.06%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will be 902,100 tons, and multiple smelters will undergo maintenance and production reduction, with a month on month decrease of 15,800 tons, a decrease of 1.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.4%.

On the demand side: weak overseas demand, high domestic prices suppressed demand, and downstream bargained hunting procurement. From a terminal perspective, the new field of wind and solar energy was improving, real estate completion and peak season air conditioning demand were resilient, while other traditional demand margins were weakening.

Market outlook

In summary, the recent maintenance of smelters continued, with a month on month decrease in production in June and July and a significant year-on-year increase. Import resources were not abundant, but high prices had suppressed spot transactions. Overseas demand was weaker, and domestic demand was gradually entering the off-season, with weak supply and demand. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate mainly.

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