According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since June, the soybean oil market has been on the rise, with prices hitting new highs and rising until July 11th. At the beginning of June, the average price of soybean oil market was 7,200 RMB/ton. On July 11th, the average price of soybean oil market was 8,250 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 14.58%.
The main factors affecting the rise and fall of the soybean oil market in this round are as follows:
Supply: In May, China imported a total of 646,000 tons of edible vegetable oil (excluding palm oil stearin), down from 851,000 tons in April, a decrease of 31% compared to the previous month. Soybean oil accounts for a relatively large proportion of edible vegetable oils. The loose supply has to some extent limited the room for soybean oil to rise.
Inventory: According to soybean oil inventory statistics from January to July, soybean oil inventory has continued to increase since June, exceeding 1 million tons and returning to high levels. Entering July, soybean oil inventory slightly decreased, still reaching over 900,000 tons. Inventory pressure is still ongoing, and there is insufficient momentum for the continuous increase in soybean oil.
Futures: Affected by the El Nino phenomenon, American beans are in their growth period. According to USDA data, the excellent rate of American beans for the week ended July 2 was 50%, far lower than 63% in the same period last year. At the futures level, there is a bullish outlook for beans in the external market, with the soybean oil market fluctuating and rising for more than a month. As of July 11th, the main contract for soybean oil has risen by more than 12% compared to early June. Driven by the futures market, the spot price of soybean oil rose by over 14%.
Demand side: Since June, the weather has gradually warmed up, and the oil and fat terminal industry has entered the off-season of consumption. Terminal procurement is cautious, and whoever uses it will use it. Market transactions are limited, and sales are flat. Starting from July, the demand for soybean oil terminals remained flat, hindering a significant increase in the soybean oil market.
SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that the rise in the soybean oil market this round is mainly due to the continuous rise in the external futures market, supporting the domestic spot soybean oil market to rise. Due to the hot weather after mid July and the continuous decline in terminal consumer demand, the substitution effect of palm oil has increased, and the future market of soybean oil is under pressure.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
6.1-7.12
https://www.100ppi.com/forecast/detail-20230712-186599.html
SunSirs: Good News, China Domestic DDGS Market Surged
According to the market analysis system of SunSirs, on July 12th, the average market price of DDGS was 2,800 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 4.58%.
On July 12th, the DDGS market surged, rising by over 10.82% compared to the beginning of the month. The main reason is that the market for DDGS substitute soybean meal has skyrocketed, leading to a tightening of its own supply. Alcohol factories have raised prices, leading to an increase in factory prices. The mainstream market quotation has risen to 2,850-2,900 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 100-150 RMB/ton. The rigid demand for terminal aquatic products is supported, with active market transactions and an increase in sales volume, resulting in a significant increase in the DDGS market.
SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that supply is tightening and terminal demand is supporting. It is expected that there is still room for improvement in the future DDGS market.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.