Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices slightly increased this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 69,888.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.32% from the 68,303.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 24.2%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices have fallen for 6 weeks and risen for 6 weeks in the past three months. Recently, copper prices maintained a prolonged upward trend.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, inflation in the US fell significantly in June, hitting a new low in over two years, while the US Index plummeted to its lowest level in over two years, and metals collectively surged.

Supply side: The mining side remained abundant, with the copper concentrate import index of 91.67 US dollars/ton last week, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The cumulative production from January to June was 5.5592 million tons, an increase of 553,400 tons year-on-year, or 11.06%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will be 902,100 tons, and multiple smelters will undergo maintenance and production reduction, with a month on month decrease of 15,800 tons, a decrease of 1.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Recently, some copper, Russian copper, and Lomo African copper cancelled by LME's Asian warehouse had entered, leading to an increase in imported resources.

On the demand side: Overseas demand was weak, while domestic high prices suppressed demand. Last week, the operating rate of refined copper rods was 66.92%, with a weekly increase of 1.72 percentage points; The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 43.92%, with a decrease of 5.04 percentage points in the circumferential ratio.

Market outlook

In summary, the domestic economy maintained a weak recovery, and imported resources were gradually entering the country. The inhibitory effect of high prices and off-season on demand was slightly evident. Domestic inventory had accumulated for three consecutive weeks, with global inventory showing low levels. Overall, both internal and external macro recovered. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and stronger.

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