Price trend

In the first half of 2023, the domestic melamine market declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of melamine enterprises as of January 1, 2023 was 8,233.33 RMB/ton. As of June 30, the average price of melamine enterprises was 6,575.00 RMB/ton, and the market fell by 20.14% within six months.

The overall trend of melamine in the first half of 2023 can be divided into two stages:

Narrow range fluctuation stage (January-February): In January, the price of raw material urea slightly increased, with strong cost support. There were many melamine maintenance devices, market supply was reduced, and export market performance was decent. However, domestic demand performance was poor, and the enthusiasm of terminal factories to hoard goods before the holiday was not high. After the holiday, the demand performance was still the same, and the market was stable, wait-and-see and in a consolidation. In February, the raw material urea showed a "v" shaped trend, which had a certain impact on the melamine market trend. The maintenance equipment gradually recovered, but downstream demand was less than expected, and the melamine market fluctuated and rose in a narrow range.

Market decline stage (March-June): In March, the price of raw material urea fell, cost support weakened, manufacturers orderly executed early orders, downstream demand did not improve significantly, new order follow-up was insufficient, market transactions were on demand, and the trading atmosphere was cold, resulting in a decline in the melamine market. In April, urea prices fluctuated and fell, cost support decreased, market supply was sufficient, demand was average, and the focus of melamine negotiations had declined. In May, the support from raw material urea weakened again, with a production capacity utilization rate of around 60%. Downstream demand was poor, with in need of replenishment being the main demand. Enterprise inventory pressure was high, and the market supply and demand contradiction was prominent, resulting in a decline in the melamine market. In June, the raw material urea fluctuated and fell, the cost side affected the mentality of the industry. Some companies adjusted their prices, and downstream demand was flat. The demand just in needed followed up appropriately, and the overall performance of the melamine market was average.

Market outlook

In July, the melamine market had steadily risen. Recently, the raw material urea was stronger, with some support from the cost side. Manufacturers mainly executed early orders in an orderly manner, and downstream purchases were just in needed. There was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Melamine analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the melamine market is expected to watch and see at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in the price of raw material urea.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@SunSirs.com