Price trend
In January 2020, the domestic market for cyclohexanone remained stable. According to the sample data monitored by SunSirs, the price of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month and the end of the month was 7,383 RMB/ton. Prices were down 17.96% from the same period last year.
Analysis review
Product: The cyclohexanone market was basically stable in January. The mainstream ex-factory price was about 7300-7450 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared with the end of December. The situation in the Middle East was suddenly tense at the beginning of January, crude oil rose, the spot market for pure benzene rose, and the pressure on cyclohexanone cost increased again, and the factory faced a loss situation, such as Jining Zhongyin stopped production of cyclohexanone in early January, and converted to cyclohexane production; in addition, Shenyuan 250,000 tons of equipment was put into production, and the spot market supply was abundant. In view of the basic matching of cyclohexanone plant, the impact of heavy snow in the north, limited transportation, only a small amount of goods in the downstream. With the coming of the Spring Festival, the transportation of dangerous chemicals has been affected. Around January 10, traders gradually entered the holiday stage, and the market transactions have become increasingly cold.
Industrial chain: Raw materials: pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose this month. In the first ten days of January, regional factors in the Middle East led to a staged sharp rise in crude oil prices. Driven by this, the price of pure benzene inside and outside the plate rose. The price of pure benzene in East China rose to 5,980-6,050 RMB/ton, and the downstream phenol ketone and caprolactam also rose slightly. However, due to the difficulty of spot delivery of main downstream styrene, it failed to form a good support for pure benzene. Therefore, the rebound basis of pure benzene was not solid. After the crude oil's rise was digested and the rise was reversed, the center of gravity of pure benzene fell accordingly.
Caprolactam: on the cost side, the price of raw material pure benzene is rising, the cost of caprolactam is under pressure, increasing losses, and the manufacturers actively hold up prices to reduce losses. On the supply side, the overall start-up of caprolactam plants in the north is not high, resulting in the shortage of caprolactam spot supply. The market price of caprolactam rose to 11,200 RMB/ton for delivery under the boost of cost and supply.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in January 2020, there are 30 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector of the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices, including 5 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are acetic acid (10.74%), ethylene (10.23%) and bisphenol A (9.82%). There are 41 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 5 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products decreased were chloroform (- 9.09%), propane (- 8.33%) and caustic soda (- 8.30%).
Market outlook
Due to the limitation of road traffic and transportation, most of the downstream enterprises have postponed the resumption of work. The start-up load of downstream caprolactam is low, the purchase volume is low, and most of the solvent enterprises mainly delay the resumption of work, and the demand side is low. Cyclohexanone analysts of SunSirs predict that the domestic market will be stuck in a stalemate in short term.
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