According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall market of soda ash in the first half of 2023 showed four stages. The first stage was the price increase from January to early February. The period of price consolidation from February to April, followed by a downward trend in prices from April to early June, and finally showing a consolidation trend.

Phase 1: Upward phase.

At the beginning of the year, the price was 2,468 RMB/ton, and on February 6th, the price was 2,730 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 3.1%. Because during the Spring Festival, although the supply of soda ash was relatively stable, downstream glass was stocked up before the festival, and the price of soda ash had slightly increased.

Phase 2: Consolidation stage.

On February 6th, the price of soda ash was 2,730 RMB/ton, and in early April, it was 2,760 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.1%. The supply of soda ash was relatively stable, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively mild. However, downstream glass was mostly purchased according to demand, with a wait-and-see attitude, and supply and demand were still in a game.

Phase 3: Downward phase.

At the beginning of April, the price of soda ash was 2,760 RMB/ton. On June 6th, the price of soda ash was 1,950 RMB/ton, a decrease of 29.36%. The supply of soda ash was relatively sufficient. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of soda ash in China from January to May was 13.14 million tons, an increase of 1.03 million tons or 8.47% compared to the same period last year. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, and it was still mainly purchased on demand, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. upstream and downstream, supply and demand gamed, and market participants had a strong bearish mentality.

Phase 4: It was also a consolidation stage, but the price was far lower than the beginning of the year.

The entire June was consolidated at around 1,960 RMB/ton. The alkali plant was relatively stable, and the overall delivery atmosphere was acceptable. Recently, downstream soda ash was purchased on demand, supply and demand gamed, and the price of soda ash mainly fluctuated.

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