From the annual price data of SunSirs in the past four years, it can be seen that the price of rapeseed oil has been increasing year by year from 2020 to 2022, but the price of rapeseed oil did not continue to rise in the first half of 2023. In 2022, the price of rapeseed oil was at a high level in nearly four years. The main factor was the severe drought in the main production area of Canada, which led to a significant decrease in Canadian rapeseed production in 2021/2022, resulting in a decrease in domestic rapeseed imports and a tight supply of rapeseed oil in 2022. Canada's rapeseed production has decreased, and the cost of imported rapeseed is high, which is beneficial for the continuous increase in rapeseed oil prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of Rapeseed oil in the Spot market was 12,992 RMB/ton on January 1, 2023, and the average price of Rapeseed oil in the Spot market was 9,113 RMB/ton on June 30, 2023, during which the quotation fell by 29.85%. The highest average price is 12,992 RMB/ton, and the lowest average price is 7,912 RMB/ton. In the first half of 2023, the price of rapeseed oil was weak and downward, with the focus constantly shifting downwards. In June, the price rebounded.

The global rapeseed supply was loose in 2022/2023. According to USDA data in February, the global rapeseed production reached a historical high of 85.08 million tons in 2022/2023, an increase of 11.07 million tons compared to 74.01 million tons in 2021/2022, an increase of 14.96%.

Since November 2022, the number of imported rapeseed has surged, with a month on month increase of 517.09% and a year-on-year increase of 183.21%. The quantity of imported rapeseed has remained high from November 2022 to May 2023. From January to May 2023, the number of imported rapeseed in China increased significantly year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 405.19%.

In the first half of 2023, palm oil decreased by 9.31%, soybean oil decreased by 15.98%, and rapeseed oil decreased by 29.85%. In the first half of the year, oil showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to loose supply and weak terminal demand. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil were the worst among the three major oils, with the greatest potential for decline.

Supply side: From July to October 2022, the global rapeseed supply will be in a period of decline. The quantity of imported rapeseed oil from China will gradually decrease, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to decrease. The inventory of rapeseed oil will drop from a high level. The drought in the second half of the year has led to a high probability of reduction in rapeseed production in Canada and Australia, and the supply of rapeseed oil may decrease. Demand side: The second half of the year coincides with the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, and the demand for oil is expected to increase. The supply and demand of rapeseed oil are expected to improve, and it is expected that rapeseed oil prices will rise but not fall in the second half of the year.

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