Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to fall under pressure this week. On August 3, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 267,000 RMB/ton, down 3.96% from the average price of 278,000 RMB/ton on July 30. The domestic mixed average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 285,000 RMB/ton on August 3, a decrease of 4.36% compared with the average price of 298,000 RMB/ton on July 30.

Analysis review

From the observation of market changes, the lithium carbonate market continued to decline this week due to the low price of lithium carbonate futures. The supply side market maintained an increase in supply, and inventory continued to accumulate. There had been reports of a small number of chemical plants shutting down. Some enterprises also cut prices to facilitate the transaction under the pressure of shipment, and the spot market was still in a heavy game mood.

In terms of demand, as the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, the downstream purchasing was cautious, and there was no mass replenishment. In addition, there had been rumors of production cuts in the downstream market recently, and there were expectations of a temporary weakening of demand, leading to a higher level of pessimism in the market. In a state of relatively imbalanced supply and demand, market procurement was mainly wait-and-see, and the market supply and demand game continued.

The price of lithium hydroxide decreased, the production at the supply side remained normal, and the spot circulation was sufficient. On the demand side, the recovery of high nickel ternary demand was not as expected, and the material factory maintained a state of destocking. Spot prices in the market continued to decline, and downstream procurement tended to be cautious.

The price of downstream ferrous lithium phosphate was stable. As of August 3rd, due to the continuous decline in the price of the main raw material lithium carbonate, ferrous lithium phosphate enterprises were not active in purchasing, so they were cautious in replenishment. Although the increase of Iron(III) phosphate raw materials had led to the increase of production costs, the price was difficult to rise. The demand side of the battery cell companies, mainly based on long-term cooperation, has extended the delivery time, and individual customers had a heavy wait-and-see mood, so prices were temporarily stable.

In terms of futures, on August 3, the opening price of lithium carbonate futures LC2401 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 226,000 RMB/ton, the latest price was 229,650 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 0.28%, 19,700 transactions and 10,136 positions.

Market outlook

Lithium carbonate analysts from SunSirs believe that the supply and demand game in the lithium carbonate market was maintained, the upstream continued to accumulate stocks, and the downstream maintained to destock. They can only wait for the arrival of procurement nodes, which may bring a turnaround to the price of lithium carbonate. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to weaken in the short term.

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