According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent price trend of refined gasoline and diesel has been relatively strong. As of the 2nd, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,693.6 RMB/ton, with a half month price increase of 3.28%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,656.6 RMB/ton, with a half month price increase of 7.78%.
Cost side: The rise in international oil prices clearly supports cost support
In the past half of the month, the price trend of the crude oil market has increased, and cost positive factors still dominate the market. As of the second day, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.49/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.20/barrel. The crude oil has shown a significant increase, with a rise of over 9%. On the one hand, the tightening of crude oil supply supports international oil prices. The oil producing countries are fulfilling their commitments. Russia's oil exports did not meet the quarterly plan in July, which was lower than expected at 370,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia may postpone its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day until September; In addition, the number of active oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States has decreased in 12 weeks since 13 weeks ago, making it difficult to increase production of Shale oil in the United States. On the other hand, positive demand supports the oil market. The peak summer driving season in the United States is still playing a role, with peak travel leading to positive fuel consumption. In addition, the outlook for Chinese demand is also hopeful, as China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to support fuel consumption. On the last hand, the overall economic environment is improving, with improved US economic data and continued improvement in China's economic and demand prospects, easing previous concerns about economic recession. The combination of positive and negative factors has led to a significant increase in the crude oil market. The linkage between the refined oil market and crude oil prices is relatively strong, and the cost aspect strongly supports the domestic refined oil market. As a result, the price trend of domestic refined oil has increased.
Supply side: steady increase in ground refining operation
Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has been around 73%, with a slight increase in operating capacity in Shandong province. The overall operating rate has increased to around 65%, and the supply of refined oil products in Shandong province is still sufficient; The main domestic refineries maintain high load operation and high supply levels. Overall, there has been a slight increase in domestic refined oil supply, which to some extent undermines domestic gasoline and diesel prices.
Demand side: gasoline demand still has support, diesel demand is in the off-season
In terms of gasoline, with the emergence of hot weather, summer outings have increased, and the usage rate of private car air conditioners has increased. However, at the end of July, due to the impact of typhoons, many areas were affected by heavy rainfall, and local disasters were severe, which has suppressed gasoline demand and limited gasoline growth in the past week. In terms of diesel, the sentiment of "buying up" among merchants on the market is high, and there are many intermediaries stocking up. Coupled with strong cost support, diesel prices have risen. However, the high temperature and rainy weather in many parts of the country continue to limit the start of outdoor mining, infrastructure, and other projects. In addition, the impact of the rainy season in the south has not significantly improved the actual demand for diesel. The early benefits have gradually been digested, and the pressure for diesel to continue to rise in the later stage is relatively high.
In the future, the expectation of tight crude oil supply in the short term may be difficult to reverse, coupled with continued positive demand. The North American driving season has not yet come to an end, and China's demand outlook is also relatively optimistic. Crude oil prices are still expected to continue to rise. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries remains stable, and the supply of finished oil is relatively stable. In terms of demand, as the high temperature continues, the oil used for automotive air conditioning remains high, and gasoline consumption is supported. In the later stage, the price trend of gasoline market has slightly increased; Due to the impact of high temperatures and rainy weather, the operating rate of outdoor operations is limited in the diesel sector. In the early stage, there are many intermediate purchases, and in the later stage, it may enter the destocking stage. However, the crude oil sector has strong support, and it is expected that the diesel market will fluctuate at a high level.
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