Price trend

On August 4th, approaching the weekend, domestic liquid ammonia continued its weekly decline and continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, Shandong, the main production area, experienced a daily decline of 1.42%, rising first and then falling this week, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.48%. The focus of weekend trading had shifted down from the beginning of the week by the range of 100-200 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

From the supply side perspective, the reversal and the decline of the liquid ammonia was mainly due to an increase in supply in Shandong region, some malfunctioning enterprises resumed operation, and there were still devices recovering. The changes in operation were mainly concentrated in Shandong and Hubei, affecting the northern and central plains regions. Supply was expected to perform leniently. Since last week, a large number of imported goods had arrived at the port, which had an impact on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Large factories in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and other regions had repeatedly lowered factory prices this week, with a cumulative increase of over 200 RMB/ton.

On the demand side, the agricultural demand was still good, and the domestic demand and export of compound fertilizers remained stable. However, against the backdrop of high operating rates of downstream enterprises, there were signs of accumulation, and the supply and demand pattern might change in the later stage. As of August 4th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was between 3,300-3,500 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Liquid ammonia analysts from SunSirs believe that the supply and demand pattern of the ammonia market may shift from tightening to easing in the short term, and prices will continue to decline in the near future.

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