According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has been fluctuating and rising. From July 31st to August 4th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market has increased from 2,280 RMB/ton to 2,350 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 3.07%, with a maximum amplitude of 3.33%, a month on month increase of 8.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%. The main factor driving the price increase this time is the demand side. A large downstream MTO device may be in operation, and the demand side is good. In addition, the macroeconomic benefits have also played a certain driving role. At the same time, the port inventory has been significantly depleted, and the methanol market is gradually improving.
As of the close on August 4th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2,331 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,381 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,331 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,345 RMB/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 11 RMB/ton or 0.47% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,239,441 lots, the position was 683,883 lots, and the daily increase was -57,750.
On the cost side, the recent coal price consolidation has been affected by heavy rainfall in many parts of the country, and the high temperature weather has been alleviated, resulting in a decrease in demand for thermal power. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: both Sopu and Yankuang Lunan have resumed normal operation, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream MTBE: With the commencement of Maoming Shihua plant, MTBE demand will increase; The demand for formaldehyde, chloride, and dimethyl ether may not change significantly. A large MTO plant in East China may be in operation due to a favorable demand for methanol.
On the supply side, middling coal Yulin, Ningxia Kunpeng, Shaanxi Shenmu, Inner Mongolia Shilin and a set of devices in Jiangsu were overhauled; Shanxi Huayu and Jinmei Tianyuan units have reduced production; Yunnan Qumei, Zhongyuan Dahua, and Xinxiang Zhongxin facilities have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on August 3rd, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $287.00- $289.00 per ton, a decrease of $1 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 71.00-73.00 cents per gallon, up 6 US dollars per ton; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 227.00-229.00 euros/ton, up 10 euros/ton.
In the future, it is predicted that short-term costs may weaken, supply will increase, and demand will rise simultaneously. SunSirs Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly volatile and organized.
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