The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on August 9th. The retail price of refined oil has achieved "four consecutive increases", and the 2023 retail price adjustment has gone through "seven increases, six falls, and two stalls". During the cycle, the crude oil market price has continued to rise, and the rate of change remains positive. This round of refined oil retail price will welcome the "eighth increase" of the year.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international crude oil change rate remains positive. As of the 8th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was at $82.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $86.17 per barrel. The positive factors supporting the international oil market during this round of price adjustment cycle are: firstly, the supply of crude oil is tightening, and oil producing countries are fulfilling their commitments. Russian oil exports did not meet the quarterly plan in July, which was lower than expected by 370,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia may extend its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day until September; In addition, the decrease in the number of active oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States has led to a bottleneck in shale oil production and difficulties in increasing production. The second is that the demand side continues to improve, with European and American energy demand continuing to improve during the peak summer demand season in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, the outlook for Chinese demand is also hopeful, as China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to support fuel consumption. The third is that the overall economic environment is improving, with improved US economic data and continued improvement in China's economic and demand prospects, which has alleviated previous concerns about economic recession. The trend of international oil prices continues to rise due to the combination of positive and negative factors. As of the 9th, the change rate of crude oil varieties was 5.25% on the 10th working day. It is expected that there will be an increase of 240 RMB/ton of gasoline and 230 RMB/ton of diesel, with a price increase of 89# 0.18 RMB/ton, 92# 0.19 RMB/ton, 95# 0.20 RMB/ton, and 0# 0.20 RMB/ton.
In terms of gasoline: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices and the guaranteed demand for gasoline, the price trend of gasoline has increased. The operating rate of Shandong Refinery is around 66%, and recent shipments of the Refinery have been smooth, with inventory levels operating at a low level. With the continuous high temperature weather, the number of summer trips has increased, the usage rate of private car air conditioning has increased, and the demand for gasoline has been guaranteed. In addition, with strong cost support, some intermediaries are actively purchasing, and the gasoline market continues to rise.
In terms of diesel: The recent price trend in the diesel market has increased, with the first positive factor being the strong support of crude oil prices. Crude oil prices have risen to a high level in four months, and the positive cost side has significantly supported the rise of the diesel market. Secondly, the export profit is considerable, and the export willingness is strong. The export entities are interested in increasing their export volume. In addition, the news of the third batch of export quotas continues to ferment, and the main units begin to purchase diesel externally. Some intermediaries follow up on orders, which has greatly affected the diesel market price. However, on the demand side, the high temperature and rainy weather in the north and south have increased, and the construction of outdoor industries and infrastructure is still not ideal. However, the diesel market is less affected by the supply and demand side.
It is expected that the supply shortage will continue to rise in the short term, and the positive demand outlook will continue. The demand prospects in Europe, America, and China are also relatively optimistic, with the combination of positive factors supporting the oil market to maintain a strong trend. In terms of gasoline, the high temperature weather in summer has increased the use of car air conditioners. With the arrival of the golden nine silver ten peak season, some businesses have made inventory in advance, and the gasoline market price still has support; The export volume of diesel still has support for the market, and with the end of the fishing season, demand will increase. The trend of the diesel market is relatively strong, but in some regions, the wholesale price of diesel has been pushed to the retail price limit, and the demand for infrastructure construction has not actually improved. It is expected that the price increase in the diesel market will be limited.
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