According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was weak last week. On August 10th, the energy index stood at 993 points, an increase of 5 points from the previous day, a decrease of 36.39% from the cycle's highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 94.32% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production and overall supply is relatively stable. However, there has been an accumulation of coal inventory in the market, and downstream traders have poor enthusiasm for shipping. Customer procurement is average, and there are fewer coal mining vehicles. With the easing of high-temperature weather, the demand for thermal power has weakened.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices are on the weak side of the market. Due to weather conditions, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased, and the current market trade sentiment is poor. Downstream demand is weak, and traders' quotations are weak. Data shows that as of today, the total inventory of the five major ports is about 24.56 million tons.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the national coal prices continued to rise in late July, with some coal types experiencing an increase. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,265.0 RMB/ton, an increase of 72.9 RMB/ton or 6.1% compared to the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 670.1 RMB/ton, an increase of 11.2 RMB/ton or 1.7% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 768.5 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.2 RMB/ton or 1.3% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 870.8 RMB/ton, an increase of 11.8 RMB/ton or 1.4% compared to the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal with sulfur content<1%) was 1,892.9 RMB/ton, an increase of 121.5 RMB/ton or 6.9% compared to the previous period. From the above data, it can be seen that in late July, all coal types continued to maintain an upward trend, with prices of anthracite and coking coal expanding compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mine maintains normal production in terms of origin, but the overall delivery performance is average. In terms of downstream ports, due to recent weather conditions, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, but market transactions are average. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will be weak and stable in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

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