In the past month, the domestic EVA market has shown a positive trend, with spot prices rising in a stepwise manner. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 15th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 14,000.00 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 7.14% month on month.
Since mid July, the overall supply and demand situation in the raw material end of ethylene has been balanced, with low inventory and stable market conditions. Around the beginning of August, the cost side of petroleum naphtha strengthened due to the impact of the rise in crude oil. The superimposed market is approaching the traditional peak season, with expectations for increased consumption. Therefore, there are multiple positive factors in the current ethylene market, with strong prices operating;
In terms of vinyl acetate, it has also been boosted by the strength of crude oil, while the cost side is strong. In addition, the industry has been operating at a low level for more than a month, and the supply of goods in the calcium carbide method direction has been significantly diverted by polyvinyl alcohol enterprises, resulting in a profound pattern of tight supply on site. The market price of vinyl acetate has risen at a high level, and the confidence of the industry is strong. During the cycle, the market for EVA raw materials has both strengthened, increasing support for the EVA market.
In the past month, the main pattern of operating rates in the EVA industry has been fluctuating and narrow. The resumption of production and maintenance of domestic EVA enterprises are mutually reinforcing. The overall operating rate of the enterprise increased from around 79% in mid July and then decreased. As of August 15th, the total load position of the domestic industry was about 75%, with an average load of about 81.72% within 30 days. In terms of production, there has been a decrease compared to the previous cycle, with a monthly production of approximately 169,600 tons, and the market supply is still acceptable. Factory inventory pressure is average, and factory prices are generally quite high. Traders are following the trend. EVA suppliers' support for spot goods is acceptable.
Recently, the stocking atmosphere in the domestic EVA market has maintained a pattern of mutual strength in the early stage, and there is differentiation in downstream market prices in different directions. The phased stocking of photovoltaic enterprises continues, and the consumption of photovoltaic materials continues to be optimistic. The sales are smooth, and they have maintained their position as the main downstream support for EVA in this cycle. On the other hand, the demand for foaming materials remains low. The follow-up of terminal enterprises lags behind, and the consumption of shoe materials and other aspects is still at the off-season level without improvement. Overall, transactions revolve around demand and trading is light. Downstream foaming enterprises tend to maintain production in their stocking operations, resulting in a heavy market wait-and-see atmosphere and resistance to high priced sources of goods. On the demand side, there is a strong and weak support, and photovoltaic materials have a significant impact on the EVA price market.
Overall, the EVA market has performed positively in the past month. The raw material market remains strong, increasing support for EVA spot sales. Downstream demand support is generally strong, boosting EVA spot prices. The industry load position is moderate, the supplier's pricing is quite high, and the supply side has strong support for the market. In summary, there is a dual positive trend in the current EVA fundamentals, with a strong market trend.
In the future market, the current high spot price of EVA may weaken the willingness to receive goods on the market, or put some pressure on the momentum of the future market. At the same time, although the demand side is supported by photovoltaic materials, the decline in foam material consumption may smooth out some of the positive factors. It is expected that the short-term market may focus on sideways consolidation, and it is recommended to closely monitor the supply and demand situation on the market.
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