According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated within a narrow range. From August 10th to 17th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,366 RMB/ton to 2,355 RMB/ton. The price fell by 0.46% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 2.06%, a month on month increase of 6.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.85%. The early maintenance equipment has gradually recovered, the industry operating rate has rebounded, and at the same time, port inventory is gradually accumulating, which is affected by supply side bearish factors. On the other hand, most downstream product companies are in a period of lucrative profits, and the industry's operating rate is relatively strong. The supply and demand sides are in a game, and the methanol market has entered a stage of range fluctuations.
As of the close on August 17th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2,360 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,391 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,341 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,388 RMB/ton in the late trading session, a decrease of 3 RMB/ton or 0.13% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,240,599 lots, the position was 1,132,482 lots, and the daily increase was -11,015.
On the cost side, recent coal prices have been sorted and operated, and some enterprise devices on the supply side have maintenance plans in the near future; With the basic end of agricultural demand on the demand side, the overall demand support is limited. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Shunda equipment may be restored, and acetic acid demand may increase; Downstream MTBE: Lihuayi has maintenance plans, and MTBE demand may decrease; There is formaldehyde below: the Lianyi device has slightly increased its burden, and the demand for formaldehyde may increase in a narrow range; Downstream chloride: Due to the shutdown of the Jiangsu Fuqiang unit, the demand for chloride has decreased; The demand for dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand side for methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.
Supply side, maintenance of Yunnan Jiehua, Yankuang Guohong, and Ningxia Kunpeng devices; Middling coal Yuanxing, Hualu Hengsheng, Shanxi Everbright, Anhui Linquan, Xinjiang Xinye reduced production of units; Shaanxi Shenmu, Ovi Qianyuan, Inner Mongolia Baogang, Inner Mongolia Xinhang, Ningxia Kunpeng, Henan Kaixiang, Yankuang Guohong, Anhui Linquan, Shanxi Guangda, and Xinjiang Zhongtai installations have been restored. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on August 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $279.00- $281.00 per ton, a decrease of $2.5 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 67.00-69.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 226.50-228.50 euros/ton, up 6.5 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, short-term cost support is limited, supply changes are not significant, and demand is expected to increase. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will enter a period of fluctuation and consolidation.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.