According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market price of domestic polyester FDY is generally stable and weak. At present, due to the overall ‘off market’ status of the downstream textile market, most of the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang maintain the price before the Spring Festival, with some specifications slightly reduced, including polyester POY (150D/48F) at 7,100-7,300 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F) at 8,600-9,050 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 7,600-7,950 RMB/ton.

Average market price of polyester FDY in recent 7 days, unit: RMB/ton

Cost side support collapsed due to a sharp fall in oil prices out disc during the holiday and concerns about the market. Raw materials PTA fell mainly on the first trading day after the Spring Festival on Monday, with the main contracts falling and closing price of 4,470 RMB/ton, down 338 RMB/ton, or 7.03% compared with the previous trading day. The spot market followed the decline. As of February 7, the average market price was 4,660 RMB/ton, down 4.62% compared with the week on week, down 29.21% year on year. Before the festival, new production capacity was put into operation, and the operation rate remained relatively high. During the Spring Festival, the accumulated inventory was obvious, and the social inventory increased nearly 30% compared with that before the festival. In addition, due to the delay of downstream returning-to-work, coupled with the limited logistics, the demand side was light, and the accumulated inventory pressure increased, the contradiction between supply and demand would be more prominent.

The terminal textile and garment industry is a labor-intensive industry. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream textile industry has greatly reduced the operating rate, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom factories has dropped to below 8%. At present, the textile workers around the postponement of rework date, at the same time, as the textile industry concentration, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other parts of the factory automobile transportation is affected, the end of the textile weaving consumption demand is short-term inhibited, loom operating rate increase speed is slow compared with previous years.

In terms of textile exports, the international environment for the development of China's textile industry in 2019 is becoming more and more complex, especially since the Sino US trade friction, the pressure on textile exports has increased. From January to December 2019, China's cumulative exports of textiles and clothing amounted to US $271,836.2 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, of which the cumulative exports of textiles amounted to US $120,269.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%; the cumulative exports of clothing amounted to US $151,567 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.01%. Under the current situation, the export orders of domestic trade will definitely be impacted and will face more tests.

According to SunSirs analysts, PTA is under great pressure of accumulation, but the rebound of crude oil price in the middle of the week is good for cost. PTA tends to stop falling and recover, forming a certain support. The terminal textile industry was delayed to return to work, the logistics was not smooth, and the demand was temporarily stagnated due to less orders, and the market remained in a cold state with price or no market. It is expected that polyester FDY market will remain stable in the short term, and the future market needs to pay attention to the progress of factory resumption and downstream orders.

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