According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal has stabilized this week. On August 24th, the energy index stood at 984 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.96% from the highest point of 1,561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and an increase of 92.56% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the market mainly relies on long-term coal transportation, with stable coal supply. At the end of the month, there were coal mines completing production tasks, and the number of discontinued coal mines increased.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices have consolidated and operated, with slight price increases over the weekend. Due to weather conditions, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased, and the current market trade sentiment is average. Downstream demand is average, and traders' quotations remain stable. The recent performance of electricity demand for chemical and other expenses has been lackluster, with limited demand release.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, coal prices across the country rose and fell in mid August. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,345.0 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.0 RMB/ton or 0.4% compared to the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 616.7 RMB/ton, a decrease of 25.6 RMB/ton or 4.0% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality coal blend with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) was 716.4 RMB/ton, a decrease of 26.7 RMB/ton or 3.6% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 819.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 24.9 RMB/ton or 3.0% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mines in terms of origin maintain normal production, and the market mainly focuses on shipping Changxie coal. In terms of downstream ports, due to recent weather conditions, there is a strong willingness to lower prices upstream, while lower prices are more common. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with average market transactions. The peak season is approaching its end, and the demand for non electric enterprises is limited. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

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