Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices fluctuated and rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 69,358.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.57% from the 68,963.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 9.4%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices fell for 4 weeks and rose for 8 weeks in the past three months. Recently, copper prices still slightly increased.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, new economic data from Europe and the United States was released. The PMI values of European and American countries in August were lower than market expectations, reducing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the European and American central banks and raising expectations for possible interest rate cuts next year. Driven by China's stimulus policies, risk appetite had increased, while July's consumption data showed strong performance, providing upward momentum for the non-ferrous metal market.

On the supply side: The spot processing fee TC for imported copper concentrate had fallen, but it was still at a high level, driving smelting enterprises to improve capacity utilization, and refined copper production continued to increase in August. The domestic supply of recycled copper had tightened, the profit from imported recycled copper had narrowed, and the price difference between refined and waste had rebounded. Last week, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 243,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous week. The increase in production during the week was mainly due to the impact of last month's smelting enterprise maintenance on the gradual recovery of production, most smelting factories completed maintenance and maintained normal high production.

On the demand side: Partial orders from the power grid were delivered in August, boosting the industry's operating rate; Air conditioning was gradually entering the off-season, and consumer support was weakening; The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate had boosted the completion data, but the front-end data was still weak and faced the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy; The demand for electronics was slowly recovering. As of August 25th, consumption was still resilient, and downstream procurement was active when copper prices fell, forming price support under low inventory conditions.

Market outlook

In summary, at the macro level, there is a possibility that the US dollar will continue to strengthen in the short term, with significant pressure on the external market. However, in China, it is approaching the peak demand season, and downstream buying is significantly boosted when prices fall. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate to be stronger.

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