According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal first fell and then rose in August. From the beginning of the month to the middle of the month, the price of thermal coal decreased, while at the end of the month, the price of thermal coal slightly increased. On August 30th, the energy index stood at 985 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.90% from the cycle's highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 92.76% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the beginning of the month to the middle of the month, the price of thermal coal is relatively weak. In terms of origin, the coal mine maintains normal production, but the overall delivery performance is average. In terms of downstream ports, due to recent weather conditions, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, but market transactions are average. At the end of the month, the price of thermal coal slightly increased. Due to tight supply at the production end, the price of thermal coal has slightly increased in the new round of safety inspections in terms of origin. In terms of inventory, the inventory of power plants significantly decreased at the end of August. Data shows that the coal inventory at the beginning of the month was 25.58 million tons, and the coal inventory at the end of the month decreased to 21.9 million tons.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, coal prices across the country rose and fell in mid August. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content ≤ 8%) is 1,345.0 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.0 RMB/ton or 0.4% compared to the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 616.7 RMB/ton, a decrease of 25.6 RMB/ton or 4.0% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality coal blend with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) was 716.4 RMB/ton, a decrease of 26.7 RMB/ton or 3.6% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 819.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 24.9 RMB/ton or 3.0% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that due to safety inspections affecting the coal mines in terms of origin, coal supply has been tightened. In terms of downstream ports, as the weather and temperature drop, daily consumption will decrease. In addition, with stable long-term supply, there may not be much room for the rise of thermal coal. Overall, it is expected that the market will briefly rise and return to consolidation in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

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