Price trend

Since late August, the price of polyester staple fibers had fluctuated slightly and risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 31, the average price of1.4D polyester staple fiber quoted by polyester staple fiber factories was 7,668 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.99% compared to August 19.

Analysis review

The impact of cost benefits boosted the price of polyester staple fiber to rise. After a brief correction in the crude oil market, it resumed a volatile and stronger trend. On August 30th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at 81.63 US dollars per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at 85.24 US dollars per barrel. PTA was following the rise in crude oil. Additionally, due to the continuous compression of PTA processing fees and the relatively stable current supply and demand structure, the market was bullish as major suppliers announce their maintenance plans later this month. As of August 31, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 6,180 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.83% compared to August 19.

Cost support for the price increase in the downstream pure polyester yarn market. As the golden September approached, downstream weaving factories and some yarn factories were willing to stock up, and the increase in yarn factory operating rates had increased the demand for polyester staple fibers. However, from the perspective of the textile industry, the foreign trade situation remained severe, and textile and clothing exports continued to be hindered. In July 2023, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 27.115 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 18.38%, showing a downward trend for the third consecutive month and the decline continued to expand. Among them, textile exports amounted to 11.154 billion US dollars, a decrease of 3.57% compared to the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative export of textile and clothing reached 169.79 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10%.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that in the future, the trend of tight supply will not change, and crude oil may fluctuate and operate warmer, with cost side benefits remaining. There is expected to be a new production unit for polyester staple fiber, and there may be an increase in supply. September is the peak season for traditional textiles on the demand side, and there may be expectations of an increase in terminal consumption, which requires improvement for polyester staple fibers. But as of August 31st, the procurement of terminal textile enterprises had not shown the enthusiastic situation before the peak season, especially in the context of uncertain demand for textile and clothing exports, and the actual boost still needs to be observed. Overall, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may continue to rise slightly.

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