According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of refined gasoline and diesel in China have slightly increased, while the overall price of finished oil in the market is at a high level. As of the first day, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 9,004 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.46% this week; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,884.4 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.49% this week.
Cost side: The crude oil market is rising with strong cost support
The price trend of the crude oil market has increased. As of the 31st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at 83.63 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at 86.83 US dollars per barrel. The crude oil market price rose significantly on Thursday, with news that OPEC+ production cuts in oil producing countries will continue until the end of 2023. With the reduction taking effect, the expectation of supply tightening has heated up the oil market; In addition, the optimistic expectation of China's oil demand growth continues to be positive for oil prices, which supports the upward trend of international oil prices. However, macroeconomic pressures and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have not yet been determined, and the peak oil consumption season in North America is gradually coming to an end. This has to some extent suppressed international oil prices, and overall, oil prices remain fluctuating in the range. As a result, the trend of the domestic refined oil market has slightly increased.
Supply side: High operating rate, loose supply side
Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has been around 76%, and the utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum capacity in refineries in China has risen to the highest level in two years. The operating rate in Shandong has slightly increased, and the overall operating rate has increased to around 68%. The supply of refined oil products in Shandong is relatively loose; The main domestic refineries maintain high load operation and high supply levels. Overall, there has been a slight increase in domestic refined oil supply, which to some extent undermines the domestic refined oil market prices.
Demand side: Boosting demand supports oil prices
In terms of gasoline, August is at the peak of summer tourism, with frequent private car travel and an expanded radius of travel. The high temperature in summer has increased the use of oil for car air conditioners, resulting in strong demand. The domestic gasoline market trend is relatively strong. In addition, the recent downstream replenishment mentality is still acceptable, and the main external procurement has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low, and with the temperature falling, there has been a certain decrease in private car travel after the summer vacation. However, supported by the upcoming Double Festival, some manufacturers may stock up in advance, and the gasoline market remains at a high level. In terms of diesel, on the one hand, boosted by optimistic diesel export profits, domestic diesel export volume remains high, and market resource supply is tightening; On the other hand, since the beginning of autumn, the hot weather has gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries has gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing period, diesel demand has slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market.
Export: The third batch of export quotas for China's refined oil products has finally been implemented, including 9.93 million tons for general trade and 2.07 million tons for processing trade, totaling 12 million tons. As of now, 39.99 million tons of refined oil export quotas have been issued in 2023, an increase of 2.74 million tons compared to the total amount in 2022, further loosening domestic refined oil export control. The export profits of finished oil products continued to improve in August, and under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially with the possibility of additional diesel.
Future forecast: In the short term, supply and demand are intertwined, and international oil prices are still in a wide range of fluctuations. Overall, international oil prices are in a high range. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries remains high, and the supply side is relatively loose. In terms of demand, the use of oil for automotive air conditioners may slightly decrease. However, some of the peak season operators may replenish their inventory in advance, which has supported gasoline demand and led to a stronger trend in gasoline market prices in the later stage; In terms of diesel, the operating rate of outdoor operations has gradually increased, the fishing season in coastal areas has ended, and diesel demand has recovered, supporting domestic diesel prices, leading to an upward trend in the diesel market.
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