Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MDI market fluctuated and rose in August. From August 1st to 31st, the domestic MDI market price increased from 17,150 RMB/ton to 17,516 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.14% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 3.60%. The price increased by 18.36% year-on-year.
Analysis review
At the beginning of the month, production enterprises controlled the quantity of shipments, but the market supply was insufficient. Traders' quotations were skyrocketing, leading to stronger follow-up. In mid August, due to the impact of factory maintenance by production enterprises, the spot filling was limited, the market atmosphere was high, and the support capacity was relatively outstanding. The domestic MDI market price wa slowly driving. In late August, the overall supply was still relatively limited, and the overall market price fluctuation was slow, with a narrow range of consolidation.
On the supply side, the 80,000 ton/year unit of Dongcao Ruian had started maintenance for about a month. Additionally, the Chongqing BASF unit was temporarily shut down due to front-end supply issues. The MDI integration of Yantai Industrial Park (mainly including 1.1 million tons/year of MDI and 300,000 tons/year of TDI), petrochemical integration (mainly including 750,000 tons/year of PDH and 760,000 tons/year of PO/MTBE24/year), and related supporting devices were shut down for maintenance starting from August 15, 2023, with an estimated maintenance period of about 40 days. The overall supply was relatively limited. The supply side was positive for the market.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remained at a high level in August. The rise in crude oil had boosted refinery prices, with downstream and traders actively following suit, and the transaction was still acceptable. Raw material aniline: The aniline market fluctuated and rose in August. The fundamentals of aniline were relatively strong, and the bidding prices of northern factories had increased, with strong cost support. The follow-up on the demand side was normal, and with the fulfillment of Wanhua's maintenance plan within the past month, the market's positive guidance was obvious. There was no pressure on aniline factory shipments, and the quotation continued to rise. The cost side of MDI in the short term continues to be strong.
On the demand side, under the traditional peak season of the pipeline industry, the overall performance was average, while other industries had not changed much recently. The demand side of MDI it the short term is mixed.
Market outlook
With high cost support, overall supply side support capacity strengthening, and downstream cold industry follow-up still in a state of being feasible, MDI analysts of SunSirs predict that the domestic MDI market is mainly fluctuating at high levels.
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