According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market is fluctuating and rising. From August 29th to September 5th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3,726 RMB/ton to 3,779 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.43%, a month on month decrease of 0.79%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.58%. The market trend of asphalt varies slightly among different regions, with some regions experiencing a tightening of spot resources and the market rising; Some regions are affected by cloudy and rainy weather, resulting in slightly weak demand and a decline in the market. The short-term domestic asphalt market is mainly characterized by fluctuations and consolidation.
In terms of supply, the main production enterprises have stabilized production in Zhende, Liaoning, resumed production in Xinhai, Hebei, and stabilized production in Huafeng, Zhuhai, driving an overall increase in supply in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price is fluctuating and rising, and the expectation of supply tightening continues to ferment and boost the oil market. As of September 4th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $88.55 per barrel, an increase of $0.45 or 0.51%.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The market has slowly recovered in the early stages of demand, and demand in some regions has gradually increased. However, some regions are still difficult to show significant improvement due to the impact of rainfall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.
As of the close of September 5th, the oil asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2311 opened at 3,800 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,921 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,796 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,991 RMB/ton in the end, an increase of 84 RMB/ton or 2.21% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume is 541,168 lots, the position is 295,029 lots, and the daily increase is 42,406.
In the future, it is predicted that the strong operation of international crude oil will boost the sentiment of asphalt procurement, while the overall supply will remain stable and slightly increase. Downstream demand may be affected by rainfall due to typhoons, which may be hindered. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market will be mainly volatile and organized.
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