Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde had slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8,933.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to ,000.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.75%. Weekend prices were increased by 14.41% year-on-year.

On September 12th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.85 points, an increase of 0.16 points from the previous day, a decrease of 56.57% from the cycle's highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and a 52.22% increase from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Analysis review

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde had slightly increased their quotations this week, and inventory was relatively low. The factory quotation for Lihuayi isobutyraldehyde over the weekend was 8,700 RMB/ton, which was temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng's isobutyraldehyde factory quotation on the weekend was 9,300 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; Shandong Zhenkun had a weekend distribution quotation of 9000 RMB/ton for Luxi Chemical’s isobutyraldehyde, an increase of 100 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde had slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7,338.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 7,113.25 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.07%. Weekend prices fell by 2.83% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices had slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol had slightly increased, rising from 9,733.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 10,033.33 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.08%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol had slightly increased, and downstream demand had increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

Market outlook

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late September may be mainly fluctuating and rising. Although the upstream propylene market had slightly declined and cost support was insufficient, the downstream neopentyl glycol market continued to rise, and downstream procurement enthusiasm had increased. SunSirs’ isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise slightly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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