According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market is fluctuating and rising. From September 12th to 19th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3,796 RMB/ton to 3,901 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.77%, a month on month increase of 3.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%. The international crude oil price continues to rise, and the entire oil industry chain is highly affected by this. Spot resources in some regions are tightening, and major brand prices continue to rise, driving up local refining prices and driving up prices within the region. With the impact of precipitation and rainy weather in the northern region, as well as the rapid increase in asphalt prices that have reached high levels, the downstream market tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall increase in the asphalt market is not significant.
In terms of supply, there are currently no production plans for Cangzhou XingaoRMB and Cangzhou Jincheng. Wudi Xinyue, Dongming, and Qilu Petrochemical have switched to producing residual oil, and Yangzi Petrochemical has stopped production. In addition, Jinling Petrochemical has reduced production, which has led to a decrease in overall supply in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia's extended production reduction deadline has led to supply tightening expectations and continued to ferment. Coupled with the US shale oil production not meeting expectations, positive supply has overshadowed demand concerns. As of the close on September 18th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $94.43 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.5%.
On the demand side, the demand in the asphalt market is relatively stable, with varying demand in different regions. Overall, there is a differentiation in demand, while the demand in the northern region is performing well, especially in the northwest, Inner Mongolia, and northeast regions, which are in a rush stage. The release of demand from downstream terminals is relatively concentrated; The southern region has been continuously affected by rainy weather recently, and the downstream construction process may be constrained by this. Operators are often cautious in purchasing according to demand, and the actual investment atmosphere is not good. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.
As of the close of September 19th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 was opened at 4,020 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 4,028 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,964 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,970 RMB/ton in the end of the trading day, a decrease of 17 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.43%. The trading volume was 210,467 lots, the holding volume was 286,923 lots, and the daily increase was -13,781.
In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will continue to be at a high level, and the cost of asphalt will be supported. However, the overall resource supply is relatively high, and spot resources are relatively abundant. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate at a high level.
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