Price trend

Since September, the domestic MIBK market had shown a broad upward trend. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the market quoted 14,433 RMB/ton on September 1st, and 17,800 RMB/ton on September 19th, with a cumulative increase of 23.3% in September.

Analysis review

The MIBK market continued to rise, with mainstream negotiated prices in the East China region ranging from 17,600 to 18,200 RMB/ton. The tight spot resource situation in the market was difficult to improve, and the attitude of cargo holders was positive, pushing up offers multiple times.

Under the support of cost side, the acetone market in East China continued to rise in September, reaching 7,550 RMB/ton last week. Despite the increase in port inventory and replenishment this week, intermediate traders took profit margins, resulting in a decline in trading prices. Overall, acetone rose by 9.26%, which still provided support for the downstream MIBK market.

From a terminal perspective, as the National Day approached, centralized procurement and stocking were being carried out before the holiday. Coupled with the significant increase in product prices in the industry chain, the pace of terminal stocking was accelerating, and the market was experiencing a major upward trend. In late September, it was also observed that the demand for large orders decreased, with small orders being the main focus. However, the prices of small orders were mostly high, supporting the continued upward trend in prices.

Market outlook

From the perspective of SunSirs, as of September 21, the industry's operating rate was at 50%, domestic supply slight increased but the impact was little. Pre holiday stocking was still ongoing, and the supply of goods was relatively concentrated. The probability of traders continuing to push up was high. However, considering that the cost of acetone had been continuously declining for several days and the end of stocking was approaching, it is necessary to be cautious that there might be adjustments in the MIBK market before and after National Day. SunSirs expects the MIBK market to be strong this week, with a focus on the trading situation on the exchange.

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