According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent trend of natural rubber in mid September has been mainly volatile. The spot rubber market in China's natural rubber market was around 12,830 RMB/ton on September 11 and around 12,700 RMB/ton on September 21, a decrease of 1.01%.

Influencing factors:

1. Limited output, reduced inventory at Qingdao port

On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production areas are affected by more periodic rainfall. Rainfall in Thailand, Malaysia and other production areas has decreased, and raw material production has increased; The impact of rainfall in the Hainan production area remains unchanged, while the rainfall in the Yunnan production area slows down and the glue is released normally. The Chinese RMB fell below 7.3 against the US dollar, further increasing the cost of domestic trade imports. In terms of inventory, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7th, China imported a total of 648,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2023, an increase of 9.5% from 592,000 tons in the same period of 2022. The inventory of spot glue in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has declined, providing some support for the Tianjiao market.

2. High operating rate of tire enterprises

On the demand side, rubber tire manufacturers are currently steadily scheduling production, and tire processing plants continue to operate at high operating rates. The operating rate of semi steel tires is high and relatively stable; The operating rate of all steel tires has returned to normal, and prices have increased, but the actual shipment situation is average. As the Double Festival approaches, tire companies are hunting for bargains to stock up, and their willingness to pursue higher purchases is not strong.

Future Market Forecast:

Regarding the future market, as rainfall decreases, a large amount of raw materials will be produced in the future, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will expand. The current export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factories are operating at a high level. During the peak season, the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. In addition, as the Double Festival approaches, downstream tire manufacturers' stocking demand has increased. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

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