Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices had slightly declined this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 68,241.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.92% from the 69,578.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 8.14%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices had fallen in 5 weeks and risen in7 weeks in the past three months, and it still slightly declined recently.

Analysis review

LME copper inventory: LME copper inventory continued to rise, suppressing copper prices.

Macro aspect: The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week highlighted the resilience of the job market, providing a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening policy. The Fed's inaction in September interest rates met market expectations, but at the same time, the Fed's hawks emphasized that they would still raise interest rates once within the year, helping the US dollar soar. The commodity market faced significant short-term pressure, and copper prices fell accordingly.

Supply side: The spot processing fee TC for imported copper concentrate increased, and smelting enterprises had increased production. In September, 5 smelters had maintenance plans, but the actual impact was not significant. In addition, new smelters were put into operation in East China, with an estimated production capacity of 986,100 tons in September; There were not many smelters undergoing maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the large ones undergoing early maintenance would also resume production, with a monthly production potential exceeding one million tons. However, the domestic supply of recycled copper was tight, the profit from imported recycled copper had expanded, and the price difference of refined waste continued to decline.

Demand side: The rebound in terminal consumption was weak. Domestic peak season demand was less than expected, and there was a demand for bargain-hunting and restocking in the downstream before the holiday.

Market outlook

In summary, the US dollar index had risen, supply ws loose, and overseas inventories continued to accumulate, suppressing copper prices. However, the tightening of scrap copper had supported copper prices. Next week is the Double Festival, and there is a demand for bargain-hunting and restocking in the downstream before the festival. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

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