According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal increased last week. On September 21st, the energy index stood at 1,046 points, an increase of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 32.99% from the highest point of 1,561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and an increase of 104.70% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, due to safety inspections, the number of coal mines in the production area has increased, and the overall supply of thermal coal is tight. Starting from July, a total of about 40 coal mines have been ordered to stop production and rectify.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices have risen and the market is operating. The port's supply of goods is limited, and traders' quotations are up, leading to an increase in the price of thermal coal. The non electricity demand is better than before, but overall it is mainly wait-and-see.

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in August 2023, China imported 33.336 million tons of thermal coal (including brown coal, bituminous coal, and sub bituminous coal, the same below), an increase of 53.13% year-on-year and 7.84% month on month, setting a new high since January 2021. From January to August, the cumulative import of thermal coal was 230 million tons, an increase of 109 million tons year-on-year, or 89.84%. In August, China imported 13.227 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 4.98% and a month on month increase of 16.92%. From January to August, the cumulative import of lignite reached 108 million tons, an increase of 33.1336 million tons year-on-year, or 44.28%. In August, China imported 9.573 million tons of coking coal, a year-on-year increase of 49.4% and a month on month increase of 34.2%. From January to August, the cumulative import of coking coal was 62.32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 61.5%. In August, China imported 1.424 million tons of anthracite, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year and 17.3% month on month. From January to August, the cumulative import of anthracite was 12.415 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 61.0%.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the supply of coal mines in terms of production areas has recently tightened. In terms of downstream ports, prices have slightly increased recently, but due to the cooling weather in the later stage, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand, with limited demand from non electric enterprises. Overall, it is expected that the foundation for the price increase of thermal coal in the later stage will not be solid, and the later stage may be dominated by consolidation and operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

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