Price trend

As the weekend approached, the domestic liquid ammonia market prices had risen. Starting from Thursday, manufacturers' quotations had been pushing up. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area in Shandong was increased by 2.61% this week. As of September 22, the trading center had moved up the range of 150 to 250 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week. As of September 22, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was between 3,800-3,950 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

On the supply side, the increase in liquid ammonia was mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main production areas in the north, and the low inventory of enterprises supported its price increase. Some devices in the northern region were still undergoing maintenance, and many manufacturers reduced production, which had led to a sustained decline in the operating rate of enterprises in the short term and a shortage of supply. There was a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The manufacturer's quotation had been raised twice this week, with a cumulative increase of over 200 RMB/ton. The dealer's offer naturally rose.

On the demand side, downstream pre holiday replenishment led to an increase in ammonia market volume. The downstream urea market was steadily rising. On the one hand, due to policy impact, some manufacturers in the main production areas suspended their quotations, resulting in limited supply of goods and a slight increase in transaction volume. This week, urea rose by 0.25%. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand followed up in a timely manner, while industrial demand was mainly supported by rigid demand. However, there were not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage.

Market outlook

Liquid ammonia analysts from SunSirs believe that the tight supply of liquid ammonia in the near future will continue for a period of time, and with little change in demand, there may still be room for upward movement in liquid ammonia prices.

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